August 10, 2026
Monday
Neutral
Market Bias
Neutral to slightly cautious. SPY (-0.04%) and QQQ (-0.07%) are both flat-to-slightly-red in the pre-market, coiled in tight ranges with QQQ sitting at only 17.5% of its PM range (leaning heavy). This is a classic pre-CPI holding pattern, the big macro event is Wednesday's Inflation Rate/Core CPI, and the tape has little reason to commit ahead of it. Expect a chop-prone, range-bound index morning; the real edge today is in the catalyst-driven single names (biotech data, low-float runners, halted small caps), not in index direction. Trade the stocks, respect the 5-min OR, and keep size sensible into a quiet macro Monday.
Key Levels
SPY
Support $771.62 (PM low), Resistance $774.88 (PM high), PDH $771.82, PDL $767.46, Prior close $773.26
QQQ
Support $721.61 (PM low), Resistance $726.74 (PM high), PDH $719.32, PDL $708.50, Prior close $723.03
Watch List
ABCLACHRJWELSLNINTCSMCI
What I'm Watching
ABCLOn Watch
AbCellera up +31% on menopause-drug trial data to be reported today, hard clinical catalyst, gapping in-thesis direction, PM at 73.3% of range (late-extension, favors breakout over pullback). Tight PM coil $8.91–$9.11 (range $0.20, started 8:53 ET) into a data event → HOD Breakout. Expect relative strength vs a flat SPY.
Setups to watch
HOD/LOD Breakout
ACHROn Watch
Archer +18% on AI foundation-model breakthrough + completed piloted air-taxi city-to-city flights, real product catalyst, high liquidity (23M prior vol), PM at 71.3% of range favoring continuation. Tight PM coil $6.50–$6.60 (started 8:44 ET). Expect relative strength vs SPY at the open.
Setups to watch
HOD/LOD Breakout
JWELOn Watch
HIGH-RISK / LOW-FLOAT, massive RVOL (54.2M PM vol vs 282 prior = effectively unbounded, +201% vs prior close). Halt-repeat on volatility, extremely thin float. PM at 64.8% of range, tight zone $4.76–$5.10. Momentum runner only, the edge is the RVOL/move, not structure.
Setups to watch
HOD/LOD Breakout
SLNOn Watch
HIGH-RISK / LOW-FLOAT, Silence Therapeutics +34% ahead of Phase 2 SANRECO topline data (PV trial) conference call, hard clinical catalyst, RVOL ~31× (4.97M PM vs 160K prior). PM at 44.2% of range, wide PM tight zone $14.92–$15.70. Momentum/data runner.
Setups to watch
HOD/LOD Breakout
Earnings
ORCL⚡ Reports tonight, est TBDafter the close · Technology / Enterprise Software / Cloud · Sympathy: MSFT, CRM, SNOW
Preferred Setups
- HOD/LOD Breakout, primary today: catalyst-backed small/mid caps (ABCL, ACHR) gapping in-thesis from tight PM coils, triggered on a post-9:35 5-min close over the live ORH on rising volume.
- VWAP Reclaim, secondary: favored only if a name flushes the open then reclaims the 5-min ORL/PM VWAP and holds; use for runners that dip-and-reclaim rather than break clean.
- Pullback to VWAP, situational: viable on ACHR/ABCL if they open strong, run, then offer a shallow pullback that holds above the 5-min ORL (raise entry to max(PM swing, 5-min ORL)).
- VWAP Rejection, low priority on a flat index morning; only if SPY/QQQ roll and a weak name fails a bounce below the 5-min ORH.
Risk Parameters
- Per trade: risk about 0.5 to 1% of your account, which is 1R. Scale it to your own account, never a fixed figure.
- Day: stop for the session after about 2.5R of losses, roughly 2 to 3 red trades; once hit, you are done regardless of the tape.
- Size comes from the stop, not the reverse: shares = 1R ÷ (entry-to-stop distance). Verify the math before sending.
- Low-float runners (JWEL, SLN) carry wide structural stops, so cut size to about half (0.5R) to hold the same risk. Cut shares, not the stop.
- Prefer a post-9:35 ET 5-min opening-range confirmation before sizing in; the first five minutes are the most volatile of the day. A small early starter on a runner is acceptable only behind a structural stop.
- Quiet pre-CPI Monday: expect index chop and false starts. Keep gross exposure light, scale out at T1, trail the runner, and do not force index-direction trades.
Events to Watch
- Still upcoming this week:
- [Tue 10:00 AM ET], Existing Home Sales: forecast 4.04M vs 4.09M prior; a soft print reinforces the slow-housing narrative but is low market-mover.
- [Wed 8:30 AM ET], Inflation Rate YoY / Core CPI: THE week's event; forecast 3.4% headline YoY, Core 2.5% YoY, Core MoM 0.2%. A hot number pressures rate-cut odds and risk; a cool print fuels a relief rally. Expect the tape to stay coiled until this prints.
- [Wed 2:00 PM ET], Monthly Budget Statement: low impact.
- [Thu 8:30 AM ET], PPI MoM (forecast 0.2%) + Initial Jobless Claims (201K) + Fed Hammack/Barkin speeches: producer-price follow-through to CPI; a hot PPI compounds a hot CPI.
- [Fri 8:30 AM ET], Retail Sales MoM (forecast 0.2%): consumer-strength read; Fri 10:00 AM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (54).
- Next week (preview):
- [Wed Aug 19 2:00 PM ET], FOMC Minutes: read on the Fed's rate-path debate.
- [Mon Aug 17 8:30 AM ET], NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.
- [Fri Aug 21 9:45 AM ET], S&P Global PMI Flash (Mfg/Services/Composite).
Educational watchlist only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Levels are shown for context only, not as entry or exit signals. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.